Methodology & RULES

The traits and preferences people have a degree of control over have more predictive and explanatory value than traits they have no control over.

Ask new questions to create a new reality.

Never methodology shop.

Calculation is dividing 4 by 2.

Mathematics is drilling through the data to find 4 and 2, knowing what 4 and 2 represent in the world, and why dividing 4 by 2 will create actionable data.

Always do the mathematics.

If there wasn’t an excel spreadsheet involved, probably just guessing.

Refutation is better than confirmation.  Actively try to disprove your conjecture.

Don’t let your conjecture become part of your identity.

Don’t speculate.  Find the facts.  Test Conjectures.

Absent a randomized trial with test groups and a control group, all ideas are equally brilliant or idiotic because they are guesses.

Overcome domain specificity.

Defeat confirmation bias.

There are always second order effects and unintentional consequences.

Opportunity cost is real.

Use the benign to study and discuss the pernicious because the mechanisms of action are often the same.

Humans have preferences that make perfect sense to them even if they do not make any sense to you.

Knowing how to find the answer is more important than knowing the answer.